Oscar Predictions (Colin's Version)

Ok, I haven't posted on this blog in months, my apologies. Here are my 2011 Oscar predictions, in almost every category. I'll just predict actual winner of the minor categories, but I'll do a should and a would for the major ones. Here goes:

Visual Effects

As is often the case for this increasingly important category, the competition this year is pretty stacked. I've seen all of the nominees with the exception of Hereafter, and I can say with some certainty that the only film with little chance to win is Alice in Wonderland. Despite James Cameron's success last year, the Academy doesn't seem quite convinced by 3D, and much of that film's appeal relies on that technology. This is unfortunate for the makers of Alice, but not for viewers. The less 3D wins, the less we have to see of it. Harry Potter, Iron Man, and Inception were all great special effects films, but this year's prize will and should go to Inception. It is a visual masterwork, completely convincing and entirely unique.

Sound Mixing

Always a tough category to predict, especially for viewers like myself who are uneducated in the processes of sound mixing. Still, it seems unlikely that Inception will be overlooked here.

Sound Editing

Same deal. Hard to call, but Inception is the obvious pick. Tron: Legacy looks like a possible dark horse, though.

Best Original Song

The Academy and the world at large seem to have a raging hard-on for both Toy Story 3 and its perennial bard, Randy Newman. The song from 127 Hours may have a very outside chance.

Makeup

I haven't seen any of the nominees, but it seems like a toss-up between The Wolfman and Barney's Version. The Academy might go for quality over quantity in this one with Barney's Version.

Costume Design

Given the Academy's penchant both for period dramas and crazy shit, this one seems like a toss-up between Alice in Wonderland and The King's Speech. Expect the latter to win, if only on the strength of its presence in the other categories.

Art Direction

Since few people seem to understand what exactly this category encompasses, I'll throw this one to The King's Speech for the same reasons as in costume design.

Best Animated Feature

Toy Story 3. No question. End of story.

Cinematography

Should win: This category is heavily stacked, but no film was as technically brilliant and as innovative as Black Swan.

Will win: It's a toss-up. Black Swan will get heavy consideration, but The Social Network was very close to being as good. As the more critically appreciated film this year, The Social Network will take this one.

Film Editing

Should win: Again, Black Swan was impeccable in this regard. However...

Will win: This category is historically a barometer of the Best Picture winner, so one of this year's two biggest contenders will likely take home the statue. I'm not sure that the tradition will hold true this year, but I'm gonna take a guess and say The Social Network.

Best Original Score

Should win: Frequent readers will predict my inevitable bias here, but it will be an utter travesty if Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross don't get the award here for their work on The Social Network.

Will win: There will be competition from The King's Speech, but fortunately, I think the Academy will oblige me on this one and go with Reznor and Ross for The Social Network. No film score in years has been as musically original and as cinematically essential as Reznor's. You will see a rant on this blog next week if he doesn't win.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Should win: Sadly, I have only seen one of this year's nominees. Fortunately, I don't think I need to. Aaron Sorkin's script for The Social Network turned computer code into compelling drama, which is no small task indeed.

Will win: I don't see any way that The Social Network won't take the Oscar here. This screenplay is nothing short of brilliant, and will be used as a model for decades. True Grit is a possible, but unlikely dark horse.

Best Original Screenplay

Should win: Christopher Nolan spent ten years writing the screenplay for Inception, and the dedication shows. His sharply written thriller is a massive accomplishment of creative thought, and is successful on both intellectual and visceral levels.

Will win: Sadly, I think the Academy has the period-drama bug again, and will go with The King's Speech here. Inception remains a legitimate contender, however.

Best Supporting Actress

Should win: Of the films nominated, I've only seen The Fighter. However, while Amy Adams certainly deserves the nomination, I'm not sure she necessarily deserves the award itself. I've heard excellent things about Hailee Steinfeld, however.

Will win: Sure, let's go with that. The Academy likes to shake things up once in a while. Steinfeld should watch her back for Helena Bonham Carter, though.

Best Supporting Actor

Should win: Mark Ruffalo is excellent as the prodigal father in The Kids Are All Right, but Christian Bale should take this one. His portrayal of the crackhead brother of boxer Micky Ward is provocative on more levels.

Will win: There's a serious threat in Geoffrey Rush from The King's Speech, but I actually think Bale will take this one. Not sure why; just a feeling.

Best Actress

Should win: No doubts on this one. Natalie Portman was worlds apart from her fellow nominees for the award. It's the bravest role of the year, and the most demanding.

Will win: Portman. It's over. Hands down. Another rant may follow if I'm wrong.

Best Actor

Should win: Of all the actors in this year's class, the only one without the slightest chance is Javier Bardem. I've only seen one of the films, and Jesse Eisenberg was monumental in his portrayal of Facebook mogul Mark Zuckerberg. True to life or not, This is a career-changer for Eisenberg, who will never be looked at the same way again.

Will win: Like the Actress award, this one has a predetermined feel to it. The Academy and Hollywood have been in love with Colin Firth for years, and he will take the statue next week.

Best Director

Should win: This is really the toughest choice for me to make. I've seen three of the nominated films, but I'm familiar with works by all the directors with the exception of Tom Hooper. The Coens are time-tested masters, but have little chance at this year's Oscar. Darren Aronofsky is one of the most daring filmmakers of the modern era, able to work and succeed with as much or as little as he is given. The disparity in budget between Pi, his debut, and this year's nominee, Black Swan, is huge, but the cinematic values of both are astronomical. David Fincher, meanwhile, has consistently been one of Hollywood's best (and most overlooked) storytellers for years. He, like Aronofsky, bears a signature all his own. While Black Swan is a truly remarkable piece of artistic filmmaking, David Fincher deserves the statue this year for The Social Network.

Will win: This is a nearly impossible prediction, given the three huge names in the forefront (Hooper, Aronofsky, Fincher). I'm going to put some faith in the Academy this year and stick with my guns. Fincher wins.

Best Picture

Should win: One of the most difficult choices in years, this class is a massively stacked competition. It's not often that such a great range of films receives this kind of critical acclaim, and it proves, if nothing else, that the Academy was wise in expanding the category to include 10 features. The presence of Inception is the most promising piece of evidence that the mainstream film community is at least becoming more accepting of challenging material, if not more encouraging. Black Swan is the most haunting, terrifying, beautiful film in years; had it been released at a different time, it would be a legitimate contender. This year, it is a very dark horse. The Fighter is a very well-made film with a disappointingly predictable story; it deserves its nomination, but not the award. Though I haven't yet seen The King's Speech, all reports are of a film that is compelling in every way. However, only one film this year bears the marks of both a brilliant piece of cinema and a cultural phenomenon, and that is The Social Network. Exceedingly well-composed in every facet imaginable, it also holds the unique distinction of being the summary of an era. It captures all that is good and ugly about Facebook and its inventors while perfectly illuminating the technological and social angst of what will soon become the most powerful generation in the world. Such a work is rare. The Social Network deserves recognition, if for no other reason than that it was a film that desperately needed to be made.

Will win: Don't let me down, Academy. The Social Network it is.